By Dr. Carsten Sander Christensen
On November 5, Donald Trump (R) was elected as the 47th President of the United States. His second and according to the US-constitution, his last four-year term. This offers great advantages, for example, he does not have to think about re-election, and great disadvantages, as the Republican Party will soon have to start finding the presidential candidate in 2028. This will influence his policies throughout the period. Anyone interested in American politics, and not so much in random opinion polls, could have predicted Trump’s victory and also the size of it. Internal divisions in the Democratic Party, brutal removal of Joe Biden, an ill-suited presidential candidate and a lousy election campaign were the main ingredients in the Republicans’ success.
On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump will be sworn in as President. The power of the American president according to the US constitution is limited. If you compare it to President Emanuel Macron in France, the French president has much more power than the American one. So Trump has to rely on his majority in Congress. Quite a few defectors in individual cases, and that causes big problems for him. The individual representative in the US states is responsible to the electors and not to Trump. But what to expect the next four years and what will be his problems?
Domestic Policy
Make America Great Again (MAGA) was his slogan. Basically a loosing slogan, because America is, therefore, weak and he has, too, been President recently. Never admit that you are weak. But no doubt USA has domestic problems. That will be his main battle field. Immigrants/border, economy/tax and tariffs will be his main tools to gain his primary policy goal: to create a lot of workplaces in America. All his statements during the election campaign support this goal. However, it will be at the expense and surely to the detriment of the rest of the world, too. America first!
11 million illegal immigrants will be part of a mass deportation. Reason: 11 million Americans are taking over their jobs. Consequences of mass deportation: USA will be thrown into enormous societal and economic problems, primarily because there are no Americans who will do the work that immigrants do. Secondly because these immigrants, whether Trump wants it or not, is a crucial part of the American Economy. Cheap, willing and effective workforce.
The southern border conflict has somewhat the same reason. Thousands of migrants are fleeing into the US and Mexico is obviously not interested in getting involved in this conflict. So the wall is important here. The alternative is literally to shoot down intruders when they illegally set foot on American soil. We are not that far – yet. All cheap and effective workforce. And of course, a political trick is to lump drug gangs, deeply criminal immigrants, and those who work hard to make ends meet under the same umbrella. So, they’re all criminals, right? But Trump is right that serious questions should be raised about who is fleeing into the United States. Who are they?
Work is crucial in peoples everyday economy. So is the net amount in the wallet. Everyone should be able to buy his own house, and almost seven dollars for a dozen of eggs is outrageous. Trumps policy goal here will of course be to reduce prizes on daily foods and gasoline for the car. His enemy is inflation and general price increases on food on the globe. One of his main tools is swapping the tariffs on imported goods especially from China and Europe. Consequences: the cheap goods will be replaced by more expensive goods made in USA. Consequences: Rising prices.
Foreign Policy
Foreign policy goals will stand in shadow of more important domestic goals. China will however be an exception. Trump’s China policy was largely built on his broader “America first” stance. His first administration sought to reign in Chinese aggression in the trade sector, implementing harsh penalties for intellectual property theft. And China is a worthy opponent for the United States and Trump. In contrast to Russia, North Korea, Iran and the Middle East which all in eyes of Trump are an annoying part of his everyday life in 1600, Pennsylvania Avenue.
Trump promised to end the Russo-Ukrainian war in 24 hours. Everything is of course possible, but such a quick end to the war means freezing current fronts and it will mean that around 120,000 km2 of Ukraine will either be part of Russia or part of a demilitarized zone (also controlled by Russia). However if Trump want to make America great again, the big donations to this war have to stop immediately. And no doubt a solution will come by 2025 at the latest. Trump need results and the interest in the war in Ukraine, among Americans, is very low.
As for the South Caucasus, one must look at the Trump administration’s latest statements about the war in Ukraine. That it finds Ukrainian attacks with American weapons unacceptable and that the size of Biden’s latest donation is unacceptably high. This could indicate that once the Ukraine war is over, the South Caucasus region will be left in the status quo. At least for a certain time.
This leaves Azerbaijan and Georgia in their own different situations. Azerbaijan recently participated as an observer in the last BRICS conference, and like its closest partner Turkey, it has played its cards unusually well in the major conflicts that surround the country on all sides. Georgia, on the other hand, is dependent on its allies the United States and Europe. And the elections in October indicate that the population does not believe in a real solution and quick help, especially from the EU (like in Moldova). If Georgia does not receive real support, the frozen political situation will be accepted on a global level.
The war in the Middle East, on the other hand, has become part of political and educational life in the United States. Demonstrations on universities and in major cities have other reasons than solidarity with Palestine. Trump cannot underestimate this dangerous cocktail of political leftists, social reformers and ordinary thugs who are exploiting a very unpleasant conflict for the entire globe. And not to forget, the Jews hold a powerful position in the American economy. Trump personally would have liked to stay out of this conflict. Instead, he wants to concentrate on the third party in the Middle East conflict, namely Iran. Quite risk-free for him at home in the United States.
Then of course there are the changes in healthcare, the abortion issue (used strategically important in the election campaign to the highest mark), reforming the education system and the tax issue, but they will all play a smaller role than the above. Because they are all sources of spending and the only thing Donald Trump needs is large revenues in the treasury in the next four years.
