By Dr. Carsten Sander Christensen

Nestled at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, the Caucasus—comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, along with the Russian North Caucasus republics—sits at a geostrategic intersection shaped by centuries of imperial contests and modern-day power rivalries. While often overshadowed by their larger neighbours—Russia, Turkey, and Iran—the South Caucasus states have their own evolving interests in today’s most pressing global conflicts. These include the war in Ukraine, the humanitarian and political crisis in Gaza, and the escalating tensions surrounding Iran. This article explores how these conflicts shape the region’s diplomacy, security posture, and economic priorities. The countries in the Caucasus each navigate the wars in Ukraine, Iran, and Gaza based on a mix of historical alliances, regional security concerns, economic interests, and relations with global powers like Russia, Turkey, the EU, and the US. Their positions are not uniform; each country’s stance reflects its own geopolitical realities and vulnerabilities.

1. Ukraine War: The Strategic Dilemma for the Caucasus

Georgia: Between Solidarity and Caution

Georgia’s relationship with Ukraine is both historical and strategic. As fellow post-Soviet states with pro-Western aspirations, both have long sought NATO and EU membership. However, Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party has adopted a cautious stance on the Ukraine war:

• Strategic Alignment: Publicly, Georgia supports Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Yet, it has refused to impose sanctions on Russia, citing economic and political stability.
• Economic Calculus: Trade with Russia has surged, particularly in wine, tourism, and energy sectors. Russia is now among Georgia’s top three trading partners.
• Security Concerns: Tbilisi fears a more assertive Russia could exploit separatist movements in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, where Russian troops remain entrenched.
• Furthermore, there is a domestic tension between a government accused of pro-Russian leanings and a pro-Western public.

Armenia: Vulnerability and Shifting Alliances

Armenia’s position is marked by geopolitical dependency and increasing disillusionment with Russia:

• Security Realignment: Once a staunch ally of Moscow, Armenia has been reassessing its CSTO membership and exploring deeper ties with the West after Russian inaction during Azerbaijan’s military offensives in Karabakh.
• Ukraine War Impact: The war has weakened Russia’s regional influence, which Armenia perceives as both a risk and an opportunity to diversify its alliances.
• Diaspora Diplomacy: Armenia’s large diaspora in Russia and Ukraine complicates its diplomatic calculus, as Yerevan seeks to avoid alienating either side.
• Armenia has, however, shown growing interest in Western partnership, especially after Russia failed to defend Armenian interests in Karabakh.

Azerbaijan: Opportunism and Pragmatic Balancing

Azerbaijan has deftly maneuvered the Ukraine conflict to its advantage:

• Energy Leverage: With European countries seeking alternatives to Russian gas, Azerbaijan has become a key energy supplier via the Southern Gas Corridor.
• Diplomatic Neutrality: Baku has avoided antagonizing Moscow while maintaining strong ties with Kyiv. This has bolstered its international standing and negotiating power in post-war reconstruction deals.

2. Gaza Conflict: Limited Direct Involvement, Broad Diplomatic Implications

Armenia: Cautious Humanitarian Sympathy

While Armenia has no direct stake in the Gaza conflict, it is sensitive to:

• Christian Solidarity: The Armenian Apostolic Church and its historic presence in Jerusalem create religious and cultural ties to regional developments.
• Iran and Arab Ties: Armenia avoids criticizing Iran or Arab states’ positions on Gaza, mindful of its own geopolitical isolation and reliance on trade corridors through Iran.

Azerbaijan: Alignment with Israel, Calculated Responses

Azerbaijan maintains a close strategic partnership with Israel, centered around:

• Defense Cooperation: Israeli drones played a pivotal role in Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia in the 2020 Karabakh war.
• Energy Trade: Azerbaijan supplies oil to Israel, further cementing ties.
• Public Diplomacy Dilemma: Despite strong official relations, Baku must navigate domestic and regional Muslim sentiment in response to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Statements have been measured, avoiding overt alignment.

Georgia: Diplomatic Neutrality

Georgia maintains diplomatic neutrality on the Gaza conflict:

• Western Orientation: Tbilisi tends to align quietly with EU and US positions but avoids overt statements to preserve relations with Arab states and Turkey.
• Domestic Considerations: With a small Muslim population and no direct stake, Georgia sees Gaza more as a foreign policy balancing act than a core strategic concern.

3. Iran Tensions: Bordering Uncertainty

Armenia: Lifeline and Liability

Iran is Armenia’s critical trade corridor, especially given the blockade by Azerbaijan and Turkey:

• Strategic Necessity: Tehran offers Armenia a southern outlet for goods, energy, and geopolitical balancing.
• Iran-US Rivalry: Armenia treads carefully, knowing that aligning too closely with Iran may hinder its aspirations for deeper Western ties.

Azerbaijan: Cooperative but Confrontational

Azerbaijan’s relationship with Iran is one of diplomatic dualism:

• Security Flashpoints: Accusations of Israeli intelligence operations from Azerbaijani territory have worsened tensions.
• Economic Interface: Despite political frictions, cross-border trade and energy projects persist.
• Azerbaijani Israeli security ties (especially regarding drones and intelligence) further strain relations.

Georgia: Watching from the Sidelines

Georgia has no direct border with Iran and plays a peripheral role:

• Transit Potential: Georgia monitors developments as part of broader East-West transport corridors, especially with emerging interest in the India-Armenia-Iran trade route.
• Western Alignment: Tbilisi’s pro-Western orientation means it supports sanctions compliance but avoids active involvement.
• Some economic and transport linkages exist, but Iran is not a dominant factor in Georgian economy.

Conclusion

The South Caucasus region is not a mere bystander in global affairs. As global conflicts redraw strategic priorities, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia are adapting their foreign policies with increasing sophistication. Balancing between East and West, between security dependence and economic pragmatism, the Caucasus is asserting its agency—carefully, cautiously, and often opportunistically. The unfolding dynamics in Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran are shaping a more multipolar and complex regional calculus, one where small state must punch above their weight or risk becoming collateral in great power competition.