Georgia On the Verge of Potential War Game with Russia and Ukraine.

Georgia On the Verge of Potential War Game with Russia and Ukraine.

By Dr. Vakhtang Maisaia, Ph.D. in political and military sciences, International Military Expert, CIRSA (Republic of Poland)

In conjunction with tense geopolitical situation in Ukraine, Georgia is being pulled out of the daily political agenda. This is a case of appeasement foreign policy incursion stipulated by the incumbent ruling party of Georgia “The Georgian Dream Party” who controls the government and parliament. Even recently, having adopted the resolution on situation in Ukraine, the ruling party majority fraction has not mentioned in the document the phrase “The Russian Federation”. Despite of the matter, Georgia and Ukraine are considered in common geopolitical “basket” from Euro-Atlantic and European integration policy perspectives. According to the Constitution of Georgia adopted in 2020, in accordance to Article 78 directly stipulated Georgia irreversibility stance toward integration policy adherence in the NATO and EU structures. Hence, it means that the incumbent Russian Federation authority set up their own so-called “red lines” in properly promulgated two documents (so-called “Security Treaty Drafts” for USA and NATO originated by the Kremlin administration in January-April 2024) triggered both Georgia and Ukraine as its own “special zones of influence” and pointed out in its geostrategic plans for encroachment in case of necessity.  

The above-mentioned scenario has been operating against Georgia in case of Hybrid War format with tactical and sub-tactical operations of military capabilities in the occupied territories of Georgia and operational-strategic level in case of information-psychological and cyberwar operations. At the occupied territories of Georgia, particularly in the Abkhazia and Tskhinvali region, where the units of the occupation Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have been already stationed and deployed (as the 7th and 4th military bases) the process of “creeping occupation” is underway. The Tskhinvali region has become a national security deadlock for Georgia. The  tense political and economic situation in these territories gradually enters the mode of “managed chaos”. It has to be mentioned that the government of Abkhazian region is acknowledged as a separatist de facto government. As about Tskhinvali regional irredentist de facto government, it represents  so-called  “The Institute of the President” (The rest of the official structures are formed as the relevant branches of the government in the Russian Federation).  The political unstable processes are taking place in the occupied Abkhazia region where a confrontation between the so-called  “president“  and the representatives of the united opposition, creates a so-called “government vacuum” which is vividly triggered by Kremlin officials (Ruslan Temirbulatov, the deputy head of the administration of the Russian Federation, who is in charge of Abkhazia, and the occupied Tskhinvali region, is overseen by Viktor Shargaev, the deputy head of the Russian Federation). The Kremlin’s oversight of political processes in the de facto occupied Abkhazia is being handled by the Kremlin. There is a deep political crisis going on in this area. As for the de facto region of Tskhinvali, it is kept under the control of the Kremlin, its law enforcement agencies, and other so-called “Government segments”  which are incorporated in the relevant official structures of the RF. The “president” of the de facto republic of Tskhinvali can join this self-recognized “republic” with the autonomous republic of North Ossetia-Alania within the Russian Federation through one of its signatures.

Taking into account all the above-mentioned facts along with the difficult geopolitical situation, several specific threats can be outlined in the occupied territories of Georgia.  These threats can be formulated  as follows :

Geostrategic Threats: In this context, the Russian military strategic command is sought to set up for further combat-operational activities so-called “gravity military centers” – the first  is located in the occupied Tskhinvali region in case of the 4th military base together with FSB border guard operative forces through which the “creeping occupation” is being carried out.  military center” mission is being devoted to the joint military coalition of Abkhaz-Russian Armed Forces (around 8 thousand personnel) created in 2017 and main mission is to be create a military menace to Georgian seashore zone of the Black Sea and Western part of Georgia.

As for the first “gravity military center” created in occupied Tskhinvali Region (South Ossetia), the main military strategic objective is to be taken over in operational manner and getting under the control over Tbilisi-Gori strategic roadway in case of military intervention and controlling the key transit corridor as far as possible;  The other  goals are: imposing menace of rocket-artillery strikes in the direction of Tbilisi and Gori; carrying out operative-intelligence and tactical subversive activities, carrying out by the Russian occupation Armed Forces reconnaissance missions within 500-2000 km from  the occupied territories of Abkhazia and Tskhinvali regions toward internal part of Georgia;

Regarding the Russian-Abkhazian joint military coalition group, operating in the occupied territory of Abkhazia, the mission is set up to monitoring an operational-strategic depth and in case of intervention to occupy the territory of the Western Georgia as it was happened in August 2008 in time of Russo-Georgia war.

Geopolitical Threats: Start the process of annexation of both regions – the direct annexation of the Tskhinvali region on the example of the Ukrainian Crimean peninsula, and the annexation of the Abkhazian region as an associate member, for example, the creation of a unified state (on the example of Belarus-Russia). Accession of de facto Abkhazia to the Eurasian Union on the principle of “limited sovereignty”; Furthermore promotion and expansion of the so-called “recognition process” of so-called  “sovereignty for separatist regimes in Abkhazia and in South Ossetia” at the expense of involving pro-Russian oriented and influenced states (like Belarus and North Korea) and the development of their internationalization process; Using these two occupied territories against Georgia as a counterweight to Euro-Atlantic and European integration foreign policy course and forging the Georgian authority to accept the so-called The “Confedaration Model of statehood and then requesting of pursuing the course of foreign policy neutrality (on the example of the Minsk agreement with Ukraine); Further promotion the phenomenon of unstable political disorder and its “spillover” to the internal territories of Georgia; Creation of proper geopolitical background for exploiting so-called “soft power” instruments by the relevant Russian structures from the occupied territories (like, sponsoring pro-Russian political movements and parties in Georgia, promoting pro-Russian media structures, etc.) and their coordination from these two territories; Pursuing a policy of discrimination and “ethnic cleansing” of the Georgian-speaking population.

Geoeconomic Threats: direct subordination of the economic space of both regions to the economic system of the RF; Do not carry out large geo-economic projects on the territory of Georgia and create serious challenges for them (even in the form of the so-called “creeping occupation”, the occupation of the 2-kilometer line of the Baku-Tbilisi-Supsa oil pipeline and submission to the so-called “Republic of South Ossetia”); Creating and developing a springboard for energy and economic wars.

In order to protect against these three main threats, it is necessary to establish a unified national de-occupation strategy, as well as a political platform for Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region (similar to the Crimean platform). The goal will be to stop Creating and developing conditions of the trust factor for the local population using the tools of “Public Diplomacy”.

Distinctly is possible to review in case of invasion in Ukraine, how simultaneously the Russian Armed Forces together with their cozy allies from Abkhazian and Ossetian separatist ones could launch offensive operations in Georgia. The Georgian ruling party “Georgian Dream” effort to appease to the Kremlin authoritative regime is similar to that of then ruling party “Social-Democratic Party” in 1920-21 being pleased to the Russian Bolshevik rulers and in that time the policy completely failed and the Russian Bolshevik Red Army intervened in Georgia and deposed the ruling party and changed regime with occupation and further in annexation of independent Georgia. The same policy of the incumbent ruling party is to be have the same consequences if Russia slams Ukraine and realize the power change strategy in the country.

Tbilisi, Georgia, 23.06.2024