"Murky Waters" of Democratization - "de-democratization of Georgia."

There are many angry people in Georgia. The circumstances are the same as what went on with former Eduard Shevardnadze and in many cases their economic situation is even worst. Now in Georgia, big financial players, in general and especially in Tbilisi, want more and better laws to protect themselves. This also happened in Russia also. Capitalism 'primitive' accumulation in Transition economies goes that go through two stages in their early development. The first is the 'Far West' type of capitalist development. No laws, no mercy, only grabbing (instead of the 'invisible hand' of Adam Smith, they had the 'grabbing hand' of Boris Berezovsky, Abramovitch, ex-Soviet bureaucrats and all kinds of Mafiosi).

In the second stage, once the ownership structure is 'laid down', these 'outlaws' want to be considered respectable citizens of the state. Then they put pressure on the government to 'legalize' their 'property.' To make a short story, some Georgian financial and business circles want to achieve this second stage. The Russians now are player according to the rules of this second stage; that is, they buy and sell properties, legally, in their former satellites (colonies). They are not using tanks; they are relying on business contracts and made sure that their properties cannot be taken away with a strike of a bureaucrat or a bandit's pen. They are using carrots, not sticks, so to say. Of course, the first and the second stage can exist and develop in parallel, but the 'grabbing hand' stage is not yet on the wane and old habits are hard to break.

Moreover, there are some claims being made that [this administration] as with the last government, "special hit squads and paramilitary groups are being organized just in case this anger boils over. Take the example the case of the elimination of Akaki Eliava, a partisan group leader, who was murdered on the direct order of Shevardnadze about 6 years ago, when he was no longer needed, in what was described at the time as a special operation to arrest a criminal. He was shot execution style in a regional police checkpoint.

Many of those in the new government have direct links with the Georgian National Security Council and Intelligence Services. As before, in the former government prior to the Rose Revolution, these links are with members of the same extended family and clan network, these people [including some of those in the new government] must be close by blood and shared interests; they have more to lose if the system is replaced, or brought anywhere close to an international standard; it is clear that there is no real democracy coming to Georgia anytime soon.

Gossip and Mutterings

Claims are being made in the shadows that Georgian Defense Minster Irakli Okruashvili had a role in the death of Zurab Zhvania, former Georgian prime minister, leader of the United Democrates that later merged with the National Movement Party. On the day of his death the Defense Minister was out of Tbilisi but those close to the family said he was seen in Tbilisi that morning. Regardless of the ledger of guilt or innocence, much is open to speculation. The logic for his demise, aside from the accidental death is more likely related to him forming a government within a government, and his cozy relations with both South Ossetia, mafia structures and his good terms with Russians at the same time. This was out of the desire to get more power and he was considered as a threat to both Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgian president and US foreign policy.

Moreover, rumors are circulating that the Central government under the direction of the Defense Minister is forming paramilitary groups in the regions under the same clan model as what started out in the early 90's with the "Mkhedrioni" - paramilitary group, out of fear of losing power and the US government approves this move as a way to guarantee continuity of leadership and that US foreign policy does not have "ups" and "downs". It is also alleged that some of the same people involved in this effort have close links to the Liberty Institute. The financial backing for this organization comes from the US government and George Soros. These people are connected by blood and clanship, and the Liberty Institute is center stage to the mechanism. Also, the sister of the Minister of Defense currently works at the Liberty Institute.

Liberty Institute

This organization was considered a watchdog organization for civil rights and was funded by various international organizations. Its members were the core of the reform movement leading up to the resignation of Shevardnadze and "Kmara", the "enough movement, which claims most of the credit for the removal of former Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze and the "Rose Revolution." Many of the members of this organization were on the list of the new government, are part of the educational reform that is taking place in Georgia. It is now understood that the reform process is not moving forward. And in fact the new government is just as corrupt and full of nepotism as what went before and democratic principles is something talked about but not practiced.

Since the rise to power of Saakashvili the Liberty Institute is no longer as vocal as it was under the previous government, which add credence to what many people have been saying for a long time. This non-governmental organization is but an instrument of the Central government and US foreign policy interests.

There is a schism in the ruling national party, which includes many of the former members of the Liberty. But others take for example, Giga Bokeria, Givi Targamadze (Defense and Security Committee in Parliament), are still very close and nothing has changed in their relations. However, Koba Davitashvili, who was close to former liberty institute members, and may have been a member himself, has become something of real opposition to the government. This seems so strange, especially with cultural tradition. His sons have as Godfathers, Mikhel Saakashvili and Irakli Okruashvili.

Koba Davitashvili has now established the Conservative Party, and acts as its leader. He works clesley together with Zviad Dzidziguri, former supporter of the followers of former Zviad Gamsakhurdia (first democratically elected president of Georgia) who was ousted in 1991 with both US and Russian approval. Dzidziguri, is from West Georgia, Samtredia, and was under the umbrella of Saakashvili's National Movement. Now, however, there is a shift on many fronts and the popularity of both Saakashvili and the National Movement is on the steady decline and the void is being filled. Both Dzidziguir and Davitashvili are majoritarian members of parliament.

Koba Davitashvili is gaining much support among the people (and this party is going to participate in Tbilisi governmental elections), and his team, perhaps in collation with a slate of candidates from various parties, including the Labor party (headed by the vocal Shalva Natelashvili).

Together they're going to stand for the open seats in the parliament (and this is in direct opposition to the National Party of Saakashivli). They are also looking for seats in City government. It is commonly understood in Georgia that the Conservatives, out of expediency, are going to join forces with other political parties in order to push forth their agenda. The 7 percent barrier that was first used in the current parliament has not been lowered and it is clear that this will continue as a gatekeeper for those opposed to governmental policies from being elected. A comparison can be made between the National Party and its structure to the Citizen's Union party "CDU" under the previous government.

As with Shevardnadze's former party, which was often described "as a mechanism for capturing the state rather than transforming it." Now the National Party is full of those that are the rank and file of those in Liberty and the Kmara movement, "Enough" and is close for those who worked in security fields as Gigi Ugulava the new mayor of Tbilisi. They have transformed themselves into a new elite class of in Georgia's largely dysfunctional economy, benefiting from the opportunities to take over state enterprises under the new none-transparent privatization program and networks of patronage. Saakashvili has not made any effort to prove that he is a committed democratic leader or any better than what was before.

Republican Party

The race for the mid-term parliamentary election is already underway and the battle is starting over the registration of the party and efforts by the ruling government to keep this party from gaining a foothold. Problems are staring in Ajara, where this party has its base of support. Girogi Masalkin wanted to run for an open seat as a majoratian member but this was stopped. The Supreme Council of Adjara has drafted a law that prevents Masalkin, an existing member of the Adjarian Supreme council, from presenting his candidacy to the parliamentary elections. This means that whoever wants to move from the Adjarian Supreme Council to the national parliament will have to step down from being a member of the Council before he or she would be able to apply to the Central Election Commission and be placed on the ballot.

Giorgi Masalkin, a member of the Republican Party, was going to try his luck to become a deputy from Batumi. In case this law is enacted, he will only have either to withdraw from the election marathon or to give up the seat in the Adjarian Supreme Council. The latter choice represent a risk as Malaskin has no 100% guarantee that he will defeat the governmental candidate. Moreover, based on his local standing, the government will use all its resources to get its own hand picked candidate elected.

The bill was proposed two months ago by the Republican with the purpose of keeping Giorgi Masalkin from freely running for a parliamentary seat. In this way, the governmental can push forth Jemal Inaishvili, a former head of the Poti port and a financial backer of the "Our Adjaria Movement." Some claim that Inaishvili has switched horses in the 2004 Ajarian crisis and has supported Saakashvili instead of the former strongman, Aslan Abshadze.

Now it is expected that Inaishvili will not have any obstacles in Batumi and he has close connections at the local level, his current position as Head of the Georgian Chamber of Commerce and all that went before the resignation and outing of Aslan Abshadze, his motivation is only too clear, as well as his political and economic interests (both close to the Akhvlediani can, that is part of the extended family of Eduard Shevardnadze).

Other parties that are looking at cooperation and collaboration in standing against the National Movement, include but not limited to the following: The New Rights, the Conservative Party, the Labor Party and the Freedom Party. These parties are a mixed bag of economic and political interests and the only real contenders among them are those representing the Conservatives.

An attempt to deprive a candidate from participating in elections to the Supreme Council of Adjara was made before. The Coordination Council of the president of Adjaria decided that a member of the Georgian parliament had no right to run for the Supreme Council elections. At that time this trick worked well. Davit Berdzenishvili, another contender on the political racetrack, Republican, and who had been rather outspoken on several fronts, refused to give up his seat in the Georgian parliament and could not lead the list of the Republicans in the Supreme Council elections. The same story happened with Tamaz Diasamidze, another Republican, who was center-stage in organizing anti Aslan Abshadze activities, and who also decided not to risk what was considered a secure place in the Georgian parliament.

The only man who gave up his parliamentary seat in favor of the Supreme Council seat was Koba Khabazi, who was one of the organizers for "Our Ajara". As a member of the Adjarian Supreme Council it was his hope become its Chairman but the government preferred Mikheil Makharadze as the favorite.

Now Khabazi wants to return to parliament and run as a majority deputy from the Kobuleti election district. Koba Khabazi, now Ajarian Minister of Health, one of the founders of the Our Ajara movement. Our Adjara, which was funded in part by those, connected to Liberty and Jemal Inaishvili, who has effectively rode with the fox and ran with the hounds (serving in the camps of both the former and current government).

In Ajaria, Mikheil Makharadze was first chairman of the Supreme Council and Levan Varshalomidze appointed the post of Ajarian leader (Varshalomidze studied together with Saakashvili in Kiev), and is closely involved with the privatization. In a private deal with Turkish businessmen, which is unofficial, he sold off much resort real estate in the high mountains of Ajara, "beshumi" - which is 99 percent Moslem and borders with Turkey. It is also obvious that only those that are close and have a history with Saakashvili are allowed to hold high posts and this confirms the general trend of who get put in what positions and why.

Summary

It is not difficult to understand what ramification could result from these parliamentary elections and the ensuring fallout in Georgia. With victory of conservative or republican candidates in the parliamentary elections would mean that the parliamentary opposition would have an additional force to form a faction, and the majority in government, national party and Saakashvili's team would then have to mobilize all its resources to prevent this from happening. This is only the beginning and fierce fights are looming on the horizon. Some go as far as to predict that Saakashvili's political demise will not be as peaceful as that of former President Eduard Shevardnadze.