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President and the Team
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| By Thomas Hirsh |
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The presidential race has ended with the clear mandate for Ilham Aliyev. Today the question on everybody's mind is, who will be the key players in the young president's team? Milli Majlis surprised many at the appointment of Arthur Rasizade to the Prime Minister's post on November 4th, though the present president repeatedly said that there would be no major structural changes in the government. It seems like a logical move by Ilham Aliyev to propose Arthur Rasizade to the Prime Minister's post, as he was the head of the government from 1997 till recent times. I would like to remind you of the fact that Arthur Rasizade resigned by his own will just before the elections and Ilham Aliyev was appointed as Prime Minister, on the recommendation of the ex-president of Azerbaijan, Heydar Aliyev.
Mr. Ilham Aliyey will be looking to find a delicate and working balance between the "old guard" loyal to the ex-president Heydar Aliyev and "young reformers" who are supporters of the current president Ilham Aliyev. However, the division between these two groups of "old squad" and "young reformers" is a very thin line to ride, as both groups hold important portfolios in the government.
That's why it is imperative to pay attention to the postings of the candidates in Ilham Aliyev's team. Both "old squad" and "young reformers" showed their loyalty to the head of the government during the recent presidential elections. The work done by the "old squad" members clearly reflected once more that they have enough powder in their guns, yet, to serve the head of the government with faith and sincerity for decades to come. At the same time the riots organized by the radicals of the leading opposition party did not exactly help to bring about great changes in the government structure. At this juncture it is necessary for Ilham Aliyev to keep his team together in order to maintain the stability of the country. This has already been proven by the appointment of Arthur Rasizade as the prime minister. Same time this appointment can be viewed as the strengthening of the position of the "old squad" which is lead by Ramiz Mekhtiyev, head of the presidential office.
That is why we can talk about the necessity for the structural reforms in corridors of power. It is no secret that in some aspects responsibilities overlaps between the personnel of the presidential office and the cabinet of ministers. The granting of benefits and titles to the government employees could help reduce their numbers in the presidential office thus overcoming redundancy. Ilham Aliyev can then offer an honorable and lucrative retirement scheme to some of the members of his team fpor an efficient and effective running of the government.
Private and personal loyalty to the head is likely to play a major role. Some experts talk about the re-assessment of the foreign policy of Ilham Aliyev. The active support from the Russian establishment to the current head in the pre-election campaign has proven without doubt that the Russian aspect carries weight. Unlike USA or Turkey, Russia did not once tried to show support to the opposition or doubted the results of the elections or the democratic environment in which these were held.
In fulfilling its oil strategy and building of pipelines in the western direction, Azerbaijan had distanced itself from Russia. Now Ilham Aliyev has to try to get closer to Russia without damaging the national interest. In this case it would not be surprising if some of his team members having strong contacts at personal level with Russia get promoted to leading positions. These arrangements will not only stop infighting within the team but also enhance chances of a speedy development of oil sector. This is only possible with closer ties with Russia and getting access to its markets.
It is a fact that the President Ilham Aliyev is not opposed to a better relationship between Russia and Azerbaijan. For the sake of an argument one can say that this would create a favorable economic climate in the country that will only inspire confidence in the Azeri businessmen who fled the country due to poor economic conditions and settled in Russia. Among those we could mention the name of a leading businessman, vise president of the Russian oil company "Sibneft", Iskender Khalilov. As a matter of fact, the scheme of the successful Azeri businessman in Russia who also has very close contacts with Turkish business - well-known "Koc" group, may become one of the pillars of development for the Azeri Economy. In other words, the strategic policy of Ilham Aliyev for the next five years will be of rapprochement with Russia and at the same time active co-operation with Western businesses.
Western investors, who are working in non-oil industry of Azeri economics, are waiting for firmer invester friendly changes in taxation and customs code from the new president and his team. Earlier also the corruption in these departments had resulted in exodus of prominent Azeri businessmen and foreign companies which this country can now ill afford.
However it is suggested that the new elected president might decide to take "time-out" as they say in sports, before he embarks on any changes in any direction. From this point of view the candidature of Arthur Rasizade seems to be the most suitable option for considering the future course of action. Therefore it will be understandable if we see an increased role, over the next few months, of the head of the Presidential Office, Ramiz Mekhtiyev, who has always been the right-hand man of ex-president Heydar Aliyev.
No denying of the fact though, that there will be shuffling and re shuffling till the best man is found for the job and a chesive workable team is put together to take this great country forward
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