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 | | Democracy or Dynasty |
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| By Fuad Alizadeh and Paul Duggal |
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The arguement, that the election of Ilham Aliyev as president is a dangerous precedent and might start a trend for dynastic rules in this region - has no takers.
Convincing victory of Mr. Ilham Aliyev in the presidential elections has confirmed political stability in Azerbaijan. Non-stable position in the Caucasus and in he Central Asia is a very positive argument for President Aliyev in establishing an independent policy in the region. It goes without saying, that taking into consideration the interests of such big countries like USA, Russia and Iran in the Caspian region with its rich hydro-carbonate resources, the newly elected President of Azerbaijan will face definite obstacles in implementing his political strategy. Arguments put forward by the opposition about break-ins, falsification of ballots, and promoting of dynastic rule in Azerbaijan failed miserably and were a non starter to begin with.
The question arises, if it is advantageous for USA to raise a delicate matter of power succession in the countries of Caucasus and Central Asia at this critical juncture. It's important to keep in mind that the changes in power in Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan are on the agenda and these countries possess richer raw hydro-carbonate resources in comparison to Azerbaijan.It's not a secret that at times the enormous power enjoyed by the Presidents of Caucasus and Central Asian countries, attaches declarative character to such democratic notions like "people's choice"
After collapse of the Soviet Union most of its former republics, which became independent and sovereign by - will of people - are run by former first secretaries of The Communist Party skilled in leading the masses and who were masters at playing correct politics. But now the responsibility of presidents of the countries, which recently gained their independence, will be transferred to their sons and daughters, giving rise to the earlier argument that a dynasty was being thrust upon our country. Isa Gambar, the head of the Musavat party chracterized the elevation of Ilham Aliyev as "a usurpation of power".
Only future can tell whether the newly elected would be as skilled as their predecessors to tackle the divergent forces.
The West Didn't Reject
The veiled approval by USA, Russia and Turkey in the candidacy of Ilham Aliyev to the post of Prime Minister just before the elections meant particular blessing for a presidentship. The West expressed loyalty to the internal political processes taking place in the countries of the region. Ilham Aliyev, showing himself as a mature politician and leading the Azeri delegation in Parliamentary Assembly of European Union (PACE) and being selected the Vice President of PACE fully satisfied USA and western countries. It's important to remember that Ilham Aliyev was fulfilling the accountabilities of the first Vise-President of SOCAR before taking the responsibility of Prime Minister and played a greater role in signing of present oil contracts.
Moreover, why US has to question the candidacy of Ilham Aliyev when the incumbent president of the US, George W. Bush himself is the son of former president of the United States, George Bush, and at the same time in the state of Florida, where the results of voting were crucial for Bush being elected, the post of governor was held by his brother.
Hopefully, US Government won't forget the hard times of economic depression when Franklin Roosevelt held the post of president for four terms, and only after his death, the new acceptable limit of two-terms for the presidents came into effect. The convincing victory of Ilham Aliyev is in no way beginning of a monarchy either in our country, as feared by many.
Probably, that is why the western countries were more keen to recieve firm guarantees that billions of dollars pumped in Azerbaijani economy by them shall remain secure, than the concerns for elections being held in a democratic way. Besides, as mentioned, the tough attitude of US government towards Azerbaijan could push Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan towards hostility. And this could happen with the Caspian oil and gas flowing directly to Iran, the enemy number one of the US, after the destruction of Iraq.
At the same time they can transport their enormous hydro carbonic resources indirectly to the western direction to Turkey provided these political nuances can be solved amicably. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan's judicial base is solid enough to participate in the energetic corridor through Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. In this case it is important to remind the Istanbul summit of OSSE of 18th November, 1999, when the presidents of Azerbaijan, Turkey, the USA, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan signed declarations, that included the set of agreements about launching the construction of BTC, as well as the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline (unfortunately the latter idea has not been realized yet) which were intended to be laid through the bottom of the Caspian Sea and continuing through the territories of Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. Talks are on for Kazakhstan indirectly joining the BTC pipeline: the work on the construction of sea transport corridor Actau-Baku has already started.
Russia Didn't Hide its Choice
It would simply be impossible not to expect more active support to Ilham Aliyev by the Russian leadership during the presidential campaign in Azerbaijan. At the CIS summit held at Yalta in September, the Russian President received Ilham Aliyev as his colleague. His precious half Lyudmila Putina, who was met with and accompanied during her visit to Baku by the Azerbaijani President's wife Mekhriban Aliyeva, admired the attitude displayed towards the Russian language in our country.
At the outset of their independence, the south Caucasian and Central Asian countries were cautious towards their neighbor, Russia.This image of democratic state was due to the unpredictable nature of the first president of Russia, who often threatened these break away states. This image remained till he resigned. However strange it is, just this extraordinary move - repudiation of the power and transferring it to his successor, became a pebble to the scales of history of modern Russia, and a real transformation resulted in democratic reforms, growth of economy and strengthening of the authority of new Russia.
Of course one need not turn to history. The Russian leadership rarely made efforts to change the minds of the leaders of South Caucasian and Central Asian countries to refuse the main transportation route of the energy supplies to the Turkish port of Jeyhan. Nevertheless, transnational corporations (who's fixed capital constitute the capital of Russian companies) are joining hands to convince Russia about their claims to return their lost positions in the South Caucasus and central Asia. This resulted in excellent prospects in oil exploration, extraction and developments in the region as can be seen from the collaboration between Russian Lukoil, Kazakh and Azeri national oil companies. As Russian diplomats like to say - "Russia is too big, and it is difficult to bypass it".
Russia is naturally keen to integrate with CIS countries and to become an integral part of this alliance. Russia's attempts to speed up the integration processes are considered by many as the attempts to revive USSR. Setting up of Controlling board is more threatening to the South Caucasian and Central Asian newly independence gained countries. However the Russian President Vladimir Putin refuted such fears that the controlling board might become an instrument for founding a union as "bosh" Russia is hardly interested in founding a union and in drudging at the expense of less developed countries of the region. It is known that the economic situation of Russia, which is rich in natural resources, is strengthening its position in world community. Russia is concerned about the stability of its neighbor, Azerbaijan and certainly will greet mutually beneficial collaborations in economy.
Iranian Position
Coming to power of Ilham Aliyev as a president, which suits in every respect, both the West and the Russia, may produce polysemantic reaction in Iran.
In 1979, after Islamic revolution in Iran, the power passed into the hands of pious, so-called ecclesiastical leaders, instead of previous Pekhlevee shah dynasty, which followed a westernized policy. At first - Ayatollah Khomeini, then his successor, Ali Khamenei. Naturally, the party line of Iran based on support from Islamic movement arouses undisguised temper of Western countries and mainly USA, which (especially after events of 11th of September) strongly appealed to all states tos stop any economic collaboration with Iran.
It is obvious that with support from Russia and USA, Azerbaijan will be able to give tough reply to the provocations of its Southern neighbour, in connection with Caspian Sea status. Iranian claims regarding division of Caspian Sea on equal parts is primordially non acceptable to Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Reiteration of situation, when Iranian man-of-war approached to an inadmissible close distance to Azeri exploration vessel "Geophizik-3", which was in waters of Azeri "Alov" block and did not overstep boundary between ex-USSR and Iran (Astara- Gasanguli line) categorically raised a demand to forsake territorial waters of Iran, may have ended in tragical circumstances.
It is unlikely that the young president of Azerbaijan, I.Aliyev will allow himself to be blackmailed by Iranian leadership as in the preceding years. It is clear there is influence of Iran on Transcaucasia and Central Asia republics caused by dominating Islamic religion in these states. These countries in contrast to Iran, which adhere to a policy of fundamental Islam, follow a constitutionally approved secular form of administration. But all these countries, no matter what form they agreed upon, had an experience of the lethal menace of Islamic fundamentalism. It is enough to remind that the legal processes in Azerbaijan were conducted by radical Islamic zealots who had their own agenda to build an Islamic state. The seriousness of their intentions are reminders of the case of Uzbekistan, when the fundamentalists made an attempt to grab power by abortive act of terrorism against functioning president Islam Karimov.
In truth, Iran does not always have a direct hand in the activities of religious destructive forces in the region but the fact still remains that building of an Islamic state in the region undoubtedly has an effect on political climate here. Nevertheless, Iran has to be in earnest about Azerbaijan, the Iranian government seems interested in closer collaboration with the regional countries, but the ambitious steep demands of Tehran, particularly in case of Caspian Sea status rolling can scause irreparably damage to neighborhood fence-mending.
It would be easier for Ilham Aliyev to co-operate with Russia because of its constructive position vis-a-vis Iranian stand. As far as west is concerned, as the saying goes, there is a need to wait through, when "things will sort out". The newly appointed president might have to toe the line of his father regarding exploitation of oil reserves and to activate the struggle to combat poverty and help its population to realize the cherished dream.
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