|
|
 |
 |
|
 | | TODAY GEORGIA TOMORROW AZERBAIJAN? External Aspects of US-Georgian Co-operation: "Regional Stability" |
|
|
| By Jeffrey Silverman |
|
Jeffrey Silverman has been visiting the Caucasus for some years. He has
developed a vision of what's happening in this part of the world. Below is an excerpt from his article on "Caucasian Imbroglio".
Separatist Georgian regions such as South Ossetia and Abkhazia believe that Tbilisi may seek conflict resolution and territorial integrity by armed actions rather than by peaceful means. The attention on Georgia and its role in the fight against terrorism is undoubtedly attributable to the importance of extensive oil and gas reserves in the Caspian region. A more straightforward justification, however, is the fight against regional terrorism that has been the focus since September 11 last year and the bombing of the World Trade Center. The Pankisi Gorge was recently described in a Washington Post Article as "trackless", "lawless", and a place where even local police fear to tread," (April 28). The US is ready to provide military assistance to Georgia to promote the reestablishment of order. Nevertheless, many observers feel that the Russian and American understanding of peace and stability is to whatever it takes to preserve or to gain a larger sphere of influence.
Crossroads of interests
Instability in the Pankisi region has been a primary source of tension between Russian and Georgia. American military advisors landed in Georgia on April 28, on a mission to contain al Qaeda loyalist who might be operating in the Pankisi Gorge. Instead of terrorists using the instability to their ends, it may be the West and the United States who are really guilty of exploiting the chronic instability in Georgia for their larger geopolitical games.
In a March 13, 2001 interview, Naira Gelashvili, the president of the Cultural relations NGO "Caucasian House", shared her views on behalf of a regional conflict resolution, saying "we must stop trying to solve the problem in Abkhazia and South Ossetia by force. The problem in Abkhazia is not the problem of Russia or the U.S., but it is a domestic problem, which cannot be eliminated unless the problem of endemic corruption in Georgia and the region is brought under control." Georgia must build its own republic, while simultaneously repatriating some 300,000 refugees. Hope has diminished that they will ever be returned to their homes. When asked about the arrival of US forces to Georgia, she said, "One part of society thinks that it (training assistance) is in America's interest and not in the interest of Georgia. The majority of the population has no idea why Americans came here. It may be connected to the perspective that Shevardnadze was unable to get the Georgian parliament to ratify the agreement about long-term Russian-Georgia cooperation (about the keeping of bases). It seems that the Russian Federation presents a great danger for Georgia, and it is now necessary to make an agreement with the U.S that will be mutually beneficial. Naira Gelashvili adds, "Neither the U.S. nor any other country will be capable of helping Georgia with its internal problems. If the representatives of the Georgian government themselves are incapable of self-realization and building a normal nation, then it cannot be excluded that these people will be used to somebody else's advantage. We cannot give any serious consideration to any help from either Russia or from the United States. If Georgia were more constructive, then it would be able to improve political relations with both Russia and the U.S. simultaneously. Caucasian integration is much more important than outside help. If Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan would somehow unite (economically and politically), then they would be able to create a very strong economic block. Only in such a case would Russia leave the Caucasus. The Russian Federation is unable to defeat Chechnya, thus it will definitely not be able to defeat a regional block. However, this proposed union should be considered as Utopian."
Media Sound Bites
Recent Georgian media sound bytes by key government representatives indicate that returning the separatist republics is really the end game of the US-backed terrorist training. What has been reported in the international media is but a flimsy disguise for an offensive action by the central government and other stakeholders who can benefit by opening yet another front in the international war on terrorism. The February 11 statement of US charge d' affaires in Tbilisi, Philip Remler, claiming that several dozen Afghan fighters with links to Osama bin Landen found their way to Pankisi may likely be an exemplary case of US propaganda. Regardless of the motivation, whether true or not, official representatives of the US Embassy have decided not to provide any opportunity to question the statements. Such claims serve as useful distractions from larger political and economic problems, including the failed anti-corruption campaign by President Eduard Shevardnadze and the highly publicized Georgian anti-corruption commission.
Pentagon and Black Propaganda
Tom Carver, a respected Washington-based correspondent, claims that American defense officials are examining the possibility of planting propaganda and even misleading stories in international media as part of George Bush's war on terrorism. The Pentagon is forbidden from spreading black propaganda in the American media, but there is nothing to stop an American newspaper from picking up a story carried abroad. A new department, the Office of Strategic Influence, has been set up in the Pentagon to try to shape international opinion.
There have been a number of proposals within the Pentagon, ranging from doing more to spread the message abroad about what the Pentagon is trying to achieve, to e-mailing foreign journalists and community leaders with information undermining 'unfriendly' governments. Nevertheless, many in the Georgian media believe that the report of terrorists in Georgia is part of a larger ploy to gain influence and secure Western geopolitical and economic interests in the region.
Gia Nodia, Chairman of the Board for the Caucasus Institute for Peace Democracy and Development (CIPDD) shared his views March 14 with the author, "These events serve as a useful short-term distraction from larger problems facing Shevardnadze. The very over-reaction of the Russians is more an indication that they can do very little and they are only making noise by their reactions in the media. Although it cannot be ruled out, it is hard to believe that any serious terrorist organizations can flourish in Georgia; all of this is but a war of words - especially with Russia. Nothing is happening on the ground and it is doubtful if anything will. Russia has no serious options in responding."
Meanwhile, sabers are rattling among some in the Georgian Defense Ministry and among partisan groups. The level of the rhetoric has both the separatist leadership and non-government organizations in an uproar. Rebels and governmental authorities are afraid of negotiations because, this entails a language of international diplomacy, a language that is not always conducive to business as usual.
Co-operation and Secure Borders
Americans have categorically stated that any military co-operation is made with the very best interest in mind. "Their goal in all this and what has been discussed with the Georgians and, frankly, what we have always told the Russians: "that this situation was best dealt with through cooperation with the United States and Georgia, so that Georgia would have better control over the area, better control over the borders. And that's been our approach and that continues to be our approach," said Richard Boucher, during a State Department briefing in late February 2002.
Weekend Pass
Nevertheless, the comparison can be made of the young recruit, who wants to try out his newly gained "hand-to-hand" fighting skills on his very first weekend pass from basic training, by taking on the "rednecks" at the local bar. However, only too soon he realizes after having been severely beaten and shamed his training was not what it was billed to be. The same disappointment may come to pass if Tbilisi attempts to take back separatist territories by force, especially Abkhazia, a region in West Georgia lost in a humiliating 1993 defeat. Anatoil Lieven, a regional expert of the Carnegie Institute for Peace explained, "If the Georgian army is boosted by a successful operation in Pankisi, it could move on..." Lieven had very little confidence in the restraint of Georgians. "They (the Georgians) could use Al Qaeda as an excuse for an attack on Abkhazia, with potentially disastrous consequences," Lieven said. The same worst-case scenario is also true of South Ossetia, located further east, which also acts independently with a Russian citizen as its recently elected president.
Established Trust
Dr. Georgi Anchabadze, professor of history of the Caucasus, specialist of Northern Caucasus, and member of the "Establishing Trust between Georgia and Abkhazia" Project, stated in the opening remarks of a March 13th press conference, "The Americans arrived with the purpose of anti-terrorism activities in Pankisi. Now they are expected to continue their operation in Abkhazia. It was claimed that during the first Chechen war there were many Chechen fighters in Abkhazia, and now it is said that Abkhazia is a nest of terrorism. Moreover, all these things are somehow connected to how officials want to hold Abkhazia responsible for all the ills of Georgia, both real and imagined... Such activities will bring forth nothing good for our country.
Naira Gelashvili, President of the Caucasus House added: "The policy (between Georgia and Abkhazia) needs to be lighter; this conflict helps corrupted elements that want to recreate a problem." Does Tamaz Nadarashvili, official representative of the legitimate government of Abkhazia in Tbilisi, want to return Abkhazia with the use of military force? In an interview prior to the press conference, Naira said that Tamaz is notorious for making such statements because they are in his interest; (but in reality) he cannot return to Abkhazia as he is not loved there. We call him the "war party" and he is not alone. Behind him stand the interest of corrupted people who exist on drug money."
Pankisi Gorge
The real threat of terrorism is not from Pankisi and does not depend on who is living in Pankisi (or camping on the other side of the border, which is the alternative). It comes from the corruption of the Georgian State, which allows arms to be bought and sold with official know-ledge and pro-tection. Less than a month ago Georgia TV filmed a Georgian ex-General, Trista Tsitelashvili, talking about his career as an arms dealer and his Interior ministry con-nections. Tsi-telashvili is still a free man and not even under investigation.
Caucasian Stability Pact
Concerning the possibility of a regional and international effort to establish peace and stability in the region by means of a Caucasian Stability Pact as proposed by Suleyman Demirel, former President of Turkey, Naira Gelashvili said:
"Georgia, as I said, has to solve its domestic problems itself. Turkish help has no real perspective for us. Turkey is not one of those countries that evoke the trust of all people. These nations of the Caucasus are able to achieve peace themselves." Naira Gelashvili added "we must stop trying to solve the problem in Abkhazia and South Ossetia by force. The problem in Abkhazia is not the problem of Russia or the U.S., it is Georgia's domestic problem, which cannot be eliminated unless the problem of endemic corruption is under control."
We asked Anna Abramishvili, Abkhazia's representative of Caucasian House, "What do you think about the elections in Abkhaia?" and she answered as follows:
"Democratic processes are now underway in Abkhazian society. The "civil sector" is now working in the field of education. It consists of people of various professions, political views, representatives of a larger society and both Governmental and Non-Governmental Organizations. Every week they meet in Abkhazia's different regions. ...They have their own leaders undertaking some distinct functions. Abhazian structures find this threatening to their leadership, and the government of Abhazia doesn't think that this should be done..."
Naira Gelashvili stated that the conflict has a very emotional character because there are many mixed families. "It is very difficult for the UN to work in a region like Georgia because peacekeeping missions are not recognized by anyone (in reality). If peacemaking is the only way the UN can resolve this conflict, the Georgian side who initially agreed with this method, now seems to have changed its mind.
Final Thoughts
Georgia and its neighbors need to build better relationships with one another to resolve regional problems. The alternative is to lose the status of independent states and possibly revert to the status of a banana republic subservient to the West or Regional power brokers. Meanwhile, it is obvious that Georiga, Azerbaijan and Armenia must, for now at least, deal with both international spheres of influence and the fallout of September 11th. Corruption and geopolitical zero-sum games still play havoc with the region. It is unclear how 64 million dollars from the US government in a "train and equip" mission will help Georgia and achieve regional stability, though it is clear how such spending contributes to US influence in a general way. The imfamously corrupt Georgian government wants money and an army capable of retaking its separatist regions, most importantly Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The US, for its part wants a strategic ally positioned between Russian and the Muslim world, and a secure route for getting the oil of the Caspian Sea and Central Asia to the West.
Editor's Note: Jeffrey Silverman is a regular contributor to the Eurasianet: www.Eurasianet.org and previously worked as the Editor of the Georgian Times. Jeffrey works from Tbilisi and regularly donates articles to Azerbaijan Today on geopolitical and regional issues.
|
|
|
|
|
