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 | | Demographic Crisis
in Azerbaijan |
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| By Sergey Rumyantsev |
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The problem of the planet's overpopulation is widely discussed but the problem has vastly different features in different countries. In such countries as China and Japan the problem has been sufficiently addressed, where as some other countries, like India and Latin America, still fail to find a solution to the problem. There are also countries like Germany and Russia, which, in contrast, are making efforts to increase their population.
It is known that the Earth's population doubles every 35 years. Azerbaijan is a rather small country and cannot play a role in the global statistics, but still it must be confirmed that our country is contributing to the general process as a typical community.In 1920, the population of Azerbaijan was 1.9 million, in 1939 it had increased to 3.2 million and in 1979, to 6 million (bearing in mind that 300.000 citizens of Azerbaijan had died in battlefields of the World War II). During the Soviet period, the number of babies born here per 1000 inhabitants was 29 (in Germany, by the way, this figure is close to zero). Then in 1999, this figure decreased to 14.9 and this sufficiently lowered the natural growth indicator from 20.2‰ in 1990 down to 9.0‰ in 1999.These current indicators can still be considered satisfactory, but they show a continuous trend to decrease and this is dangerous. The reason for this lowering of the birth rate can be found in the economic situation in Azerbaijan. The economic destruction, rapid decrease in salaries and the declining number of jobs make people think twice about having children. At the same time, the main demographic factor is connected not to natural processes, but to migration.Many young people who haven't yet married leave the republic. They leave looking for better job prospects, as current work prospects in Azerbaijan are limited and will probably remain so in the near future. The migration process began between 1988-90, when citizens of non-Azeri nationality left. According to information from the Embassy of the Russian Federation, 220,000 people left Azerbaijan to Russia during that period. Later, when the fighting with Armenia stopped, Azeris became the dominant nationality leaving Azerbaijan.
During the first years of mass emigration, people went to other countries to escape from the political unrest in the republic. Later, emigration was caused by the hard economic situation. Many people left to Iran and Turkey. Some people succeeded in getting to western Europe and north America while others went to other developed regions. However, the basic flow of emigration still goes to the CIS countries, particularly Russia. The advantages of the CIS countries are that there are no language problems and people can use their old contacts and relationships that they established during the Soviet period.Today, the main Diaspora of Azerbaijanies - about 1 million people - is located in the Moscow region. Large groups of Azerbaijanies live also in Saint-Petersburg region, Siberia, Far East and all over Russia. Many of our compatriots have already obtained Russian citizenship, made families, and have no intention to return to their native land. Many of them never return and encourage their relatives who still live Azerbaijan to follow them. Approximately 2 to 3 million citizens of Azerbaijan live in Russia (not official data), although it is impossible to calculate their number accurately because when departing from Azerbaijan, they do not inform officials. It is for this reason that official statistics are unreliable and cannot be used to make an evaluation that reflects the true situation. In January 2000, Azerbaijan had an official population of 8,016,000, although this figure could actually be less than 5 million. It must be considered that those leaving are mostly young, unmarried men. This factor creates another problem for the near future - an imbalance in the sexes at reproductive age.Most of the Azeri emigrants have now found themselves between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, an anti-Caucasus hysteria in Russia is increasing continually.
There is a new generation of young ultra-right wingers who are responsible for massacres in Moscow - in the metro and the Tsaritsinskiy market. It seems that the Russian government doesn't take any measures to stop them. So President Putin didn't condemn nazi actions in his country until the indignation of intellectuals and representatives of national minorities forced him to do so. There are also oppressive actions from the Russian police. Despite this, emigrants still aren't in a rush to return and perhaps this is due to the other side of the coin - the situation in Azerbaijan. Compelling people to emigrate is a solution that is successfully used by many countries with a poor economy that cannot feed own citizens. According to sociological data, from 2 to 3 million people leave their motherland annually to seek better job prospects. About 130 million people live and work in other countries. If they return, they will be jobless. If they stay where they are, they will be harrassed by authorities and various nationalists.
The situation in Azerbaijan is more complicated as we have the inner migration as well. Those who fail to leave for other countries, flock to the capital Baku, which is supposedly the only settlement where one can probably find work. As a result, the majority of Azerbaijan's citizens now live on the Absheron peninsula where the density of the population is 840 persons per square kilometre. The countryside is becoming increasingly underpopulated, while the inhabitants of Baku are experiencing regular problems of overpopulation - electricity supply, water deficit, ecological disorder. Something has to be done NOW! There must be no delay - citizens and the government have to work together to find a solution before it is too late.
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